DIFFICULTIES OF DEMOCRATIC TRANSIT TODAY: APRIOR DIFFICULTIES OF DEMOCRACY ОR APOSTERIOR TRANSIT DIFFICULTIES?

Abstract

Transitology as a field of knowledge about the internal logic and external features and patterns of democratization has been around for more than half a century. It had the highest respectability rating at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the world system of socialism. At that time, the conceptual verdicts and forecasts of social development, published by transitology, were perceived as the truth in the last resort. Such forecasts even exerted a significant influence on the dynamics of pricing on world trade exchanges - in particular, the price trends of futures were in a significant correlative relationship with the publication of regular forecasts of transitology. However, the crisis state of modern world order realities led to fundamental changes: in addition to the fact that the status reputation of transitology suffered a significant blow, the very idea of democracy and its attractiveness as a model of social development found itself in a state of crisis. Under conditions when undemocratic and frankly authoritarian regimes feel quite comfortable, do not suffer any sanctions even from developed democracies and can afford aggression against neighboring countries, the popularity of the choice in favor of democratic development objectively and naturally undergoes a rapid decline. Such a status quo determines a number of questions that require argumentatively convincing answers. First of all, it is about the systematization and hierarchization of cause-and-effect relationships, which determine the crisis state of the democratic transit of modern times. In other words, what is the basis of the modern reputational losses of democracy - the a priori shortcomings of democracy itself or the a posteriori inability to effectively realize the potential of democracy, its opportunities and powers?